This year’s final 53 has so many facets to it that it’s very hard to predict. There are dozens of scenarios & injuries at play here. A change in any 1 area could drastically change the players kept at several different positions. This is one way it could easily play out.
*Note: The percentages next to each player is their estimated chance to make the team.
Quarterbacks (2):
Aaron Rodgers – 100%
Jordan Love – 100%
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Danny Etling – 1%
It would be shocking if the Packers kept more than 2 QBs. They may try to put Etling on the PS, but don’t expect him to make the 53.
Running Backs (3):
Aaron Jones – 100%
AJ Dillon – 100%
Patrick Taylor – 50%
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Tyler Goodson – 50%
Dexter Williams – 1%
Taylor makes it over Goodson because he’s already proved to be a reliable back up, is better in pass protection, & has a role on special teams. The Packers could go with the upside & higher ceiling of Goodson, but right now the Packers only need one of these guys until Kylin Hill returns. If Hill was healthy, he’d already have the #3 RB spot locked up.
It’s also possible the Packers only keep 2 RBs initially, hoping to get Taylor or Goodson back on the Practice Squad. That does put the 2 back offense at risk early on, though. Even with a relatively small chance both Taylor & Goodson get taken by other teams, if it did happen, the offense would be limited if Jones or Dillon went down with injury.
Wide Receivers (7):
Allen Lazard – 100%
Randall Cobb – 100%
Sammy Watkins – 100%
Romeo Doubs – 100%
Christian Watson – 100%
Amari Rodgers – 90%
Juwann Winfree – 50%
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Samori Toure – 50%
Ishmael Hyman – 5%
Travis Fulgham – 1%
Amari Rodgers provides too much value on both offense & special teams to be cut over Winfree or Toure. It would be surprising if the Packers cut the WR they traded up for in the 3rd round last year.
Juwann Winfree makes it over Samori Toure because Aaron Rodgers trusts him, he can block, he has decent hands, & he contributes on special teams.
Tight Ends (4):
Robert Tonyan – 100%
Marcedes Lewis – 100%
Josiah Deguara – 100%
Tyler Davis – 50%
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Alize Mack – 40%
Nate Becker – 10%
Sal Cannella – 5%
Tyler Davis hasn’t played well this preseason, but the Packers heavily rely on their TEs & need that depth. Davis is also a special teams contributor.
Offensive Linemen (9):
David Bakhtiari – 100%
Elgton Jenkins – 100%
Josh Myers – 100%
Jon Runyan – 100%
Yosh Nijman – 100%
Royce Newman – 100%
Zach Tom – 100%
Sean Rhyan – 95%
Jake Hanson – 95%
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Rasheed Walker – 50%
Caleb Jones – 50%
Michal Menet – 20%
If the Packers think they’ll have either Jenkins or Bakhtiari available to play by week 2, they should be fine keeping 9 on the OLine. However, if both Bakhtiari & Jenkins aren’t expected back, that increases Caleb Jones’ chance of making the team. Keeping 10 on the team is quite possible.
Defensive Linemen (6):
Kenny Clark – 100%
Dean Lowry – 100%
Jarran Reed – 100%
T.J. Slaton – 100%
Devonte Wyatt – 100%
Chris Slayton – 50%
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Jack Heflin – 50%
Johnathan Ford – 40%
Akial Byers – 5%
I believe the Packers keep 6 on the DLine again this year. It was a tough choice between Helflin & Slayton for the 6th spot. If it was up to me, I’d keep Slayton. He has a good motor & has been impressive this preseason. He never gives up on plays. Heflin may end up edging out Slayton, though, as he was kept on the 53 last year & could be viewed by the Packers as more likely to be taken by another team.
Inside Linebackers (4):
De’Vondre Campbell – 100%
Quay Walker – 100%
Isaiah McDuffie – 95%
Krys Barnes – 95%
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Ray Wilborn – 5%
The Packers will likely be using more 2 ILB looks this season with Campbell & Walker. Barnes & McDuffie are too valuable as depth to cut.
Outside Linebackers (5):
Preston Smith – 100%
Rashan Gary – 100%
Tipa Galeai – 100%?
Kingsley Enagbare – 80%
Jonathan Garvin – 50%
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La’Darius Hamilton – 50%
Kobe Jones – 50%
Tipa Galeai didn’t play vs Kansas City along with many other locks to make the team. Was he held out because he’s a lock too? Did he suffer an injury that kept him out? This assumes he was not injured & the Packers consider him lock to make the team.
Kingsley Enagbare was taken in the 5th round this year, which helps protect his spot, & he showed enough to make the roster.
Overall, there isn’t a huge difference between the OLBs behind Preston Smith & Rashan Gary. Any of these guys have a shot at the team & most should be able to pass through waivers. We could easily see the Packers keep only 4 & stash a couple of them on the Practice Squad. This is also a position where the Packers could pick up an Edge rusher dropped by another team.
Cornerbacks (5):
Jaire Alexander – 100%
Eric Stokes – 100%
Rasul Douglas – 100%
Shemar Jean-Charles – 100%
Keisean Nixon – 55%
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Kiondre Thomas – 45%
Rico Gafford – 45%
Kabion Ento – 20%
The Packers keep 5 CBs on the 53 due to the injury situation at Safety. Shemar Jean-Charles has played well & should be considered a lock. Nixon has looked better than Thomas & Gafford, but it’s possible any of those 3 could clear waivers & be put on the Practice Squad.
Once the Safety injury situation is finally ironed out, the Packers may be inclined to trade a CB they put on the PS for one of their Safeties on the PS.
Safeties (5):
Adrian Amos – 100%
Darnell Savage – 100%
Sean Davis – 70%
Dallin Leavitt – 50%
Micah Abernathy – 50%
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Tariq Carpenter – 50%
Innis Gaines – 40%
De’Vante Cross – 20%
The injury situation at Safety has really complicated things for the Packers. As of this writing, starter Darnell Savage just returned from a hamstring injury in an undisclosed capacity. Vernon Scott, a presumptive lock to make the team, has been released due to the shoulder injury he suffered vs the Saints. Innis Gaines, another possibility to make the roster, just re-injured his hamstring vs the Chiefs. Dallin Leavitt is more of a special teams player & suffered a shoulder injury a few weeks ago vs the 49ers. He just returned to practice on Sunday the 28th in an undisclosed capacity.
As of this writing, Sean Davis now looks to be the most game-ready safety behind the 2 starters.
Unless the Packers plan to move Rasul Douglas to Safety in an emergency, the Packers would normally keep 4 safeties here. I have them keeping 5 due to the current level of uncertainty at the position. That said any of these back ups can clear waivers & end up on the Practice Squad. Keeping 3 initially is also a possibility for the Packers, using those extra roster spots at other positions then calling up a Safety from the PS before game day.
Kicker:
Ramiz Ahmed – 50%
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Mason Crosby – 50%
I’m going out on a limb here, assuming Crosby won’t quite be ready to return from his leg injury yet. That may not be a big loss because in the past few weeks Ahmed has shown he could be a capable, if not superior, replacement to Crosby. Ahmed has been accurate, has shown he can tackle, and has shown a better leg on kickoffs than Crosby.
Since the special teams kick coverage has shown it may not yet be totally ready, the Packers could want a strong leg on kickoffs to force touchbacks. Ahmed has that where Crosby doesn’t. It may actually be an overall benefit for the Packers to keep Ahmed over Crosby initially.
If Crosby is healthy enough to return, however, then there’s a very good chance the Packers will stick with him.
Long Snapper:
Jack Coco – 100%
Coco could be replaced after final cuts, but barring a trade he should make the 53.
Punter:
Pat O’Donnell – 100%