The Cost Of Moving Up In The 2019 Draft For The Packers

The Packers are picking at 12 overall in this year’s draft , which is the highest they’ve pick had in quite some time. However, it might not be high enough to get the player the Packers covet.

So what would it take to move up?

Well, I’m glad you asked!

To weigh the cost of moving, we’re going to use the DraftTek Trade Value Chart (keeping in mind that most charts are similar, but actual trades are based more on who teams covet than a value formula like this; without knowing who teams actually want, however, this is as good as it gets).

To really understand the impact of moving up, we’re going to assess what players may be available at the picks that would need to be used. This can help us get a better feel for the true value of a move.

We’ll use Brian Burns as our baseline for 12. He’s a very popular choice at 12, but feel free to substitute Ed Oliver or your favorite option at 12. To move up, we’ll basically be trading Brian Burns (or whoever you think would go at 12) and some other players as opportunity cost for getting a top 10 pick.

Let’s see what it would take at each step!

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Move up to 10
Cost difference from 12: 100 points
Tradeoff: #12 plus both 4th rounders
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and two of these guys: Jace Sternberger, Chuma Edoga, Dennis Daley, Trayveon Williams, Khalen Saunders, Tytus Howard

Move up to 9
Cost difference from 12: 150 points
Tradeoff: #12 plus both 4ths and a 5th
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and two of these guys: Jace Sternberger, Chuma Edoga, Dennis Daley, Trayveon Williams, Khalen Saunders, Tytus Howard and one of these guys: Nate Davis, Corey Ballentine, Maxx Crosby, Bobby Evans

Move up to 8
Cost difference from 12: 200 points
Tradeoff: #12 plus a 3rd
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Bobby Evans, Darnell Savage, Irv Smith, Connor McGovern, Jaylon Ferguson, Zach Allen, Elgton Jenkins, Renell Wren

Move to 7
Cost difference from 12: 300 points
Tradeoff: #12 plus a 3rd, a 4th, and a 5th
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Bobby Evans, Darnell Savage, Irv Smith, Connor McGovern, Jaylon Ferguson, Zach Allen, Elgton Jenkins, Renell Wren and one of these guys: Jace Sternberger, Chuma Edoga, Dennis Daley, Trayveon Williams, Khalen Saunders, Tytus Howard and one of these guys: Nate Davis, Corey Ballentine, Maxx Crosby, Bobby Evans

Move to 6
Cost difference from 12: 400 points
Tradeoff: #12 and a 2nd
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Nasir Adderly, Garrett Bradbury, Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella

Move up to 5
Cost difference from 12: 500 points
Tradeoff: #12 plus a 2nd and a 4th
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Nasir Adderly, Garrett Bradbury, Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella and one of these guys: Jace Sternberger, Chuma Edoga, Dennis Daley, Trayveon Williams, Khalen Saunders, Tytus Howard 

Move up to 4
Cost difference from 12: 600 points
Tradeoff: Both 1sts
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Dalton Risner, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Baker, Jeffrey Simmons

Move up to 3
Cost: 1,000 points
Tradeoff: both 1sts and a 2nd
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Dalton Risner, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Baker, Jeffrey Simmons and one of these guys: Nasir Adderly, Garrett Bradbury, Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella

Move up to 2
Cost difference from 12: 1,400 points
Tradeoff: Both 1sts this year plus another 1st next year… maybe more
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Dalton Risner, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Baker, Jeffrey Simmons and a first round pick next year that could be used on another guy like that… and maybe another pick in the 2nd to 5th round range (depending on how good the trade partner expects the Packers to be next year)
Note: In terms of picks, this is more than the Raiders got for Khalil Mack (perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL) and the value of pick#2 is comparable to the Packers entire draft class this year

Move to 1
Cost difference from 12: 1,800 points
Tradeoff: This would be both 1sts this year plus another 1st next year and then another 1st or 2nd after that
Value: This would be like trading away Brian Burns and one of these guys: Dalton Risner, TJ Hockenson, DeAndre Baker, Jeffrey Simmons and a first round pick next year that could be used on another guy like that and another high pick that would probably be of comparable talent to those guys
Note: in terms of picks, this is about what the Redskins gave up to select RG3 (considered a stud QB on a rookie contract) 

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When looking at the Packers’s options for moving up in the draft, I think this is helpful context to see what we think would help the team more.

Let’s all stay sane when the big day rolls around!

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Check out Packers Draft Central for all our 2019 NFL Draft coverage!

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1 thought on “The Cost Of Moving Up In The 2019 Draft For The Packers”

  1. Once again you prove to be a very smart guy and able to show your work so to speak for the rest of us to fully understand the many takes/opinions out there! Thanks

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