The season is over for the Packers, which means it’s officially draft season. The Packers are slotted in at Pick 12, while the Saints pick is still TBD based on playoff finish (but will be between 28 and 32 – more on that here).
Last year, Gutey showed he likes to move around in the draft, so let’s look at the value of their picks and see what kind of ammunition they have to potentially move around (assuming worst case scenario with the Saints pick).
Round: Pick – Value*
First Round: Pick 12 – 1,200 points
First Round: Pick 32 – 590 points (from Saints)
Second Round: Pick 44 – 460 points
Third Round: Pick 76 – 210 points
Fourth Round: Pick 108 – 76 points
Fourth Round: Pick 112 – 70 points (from Redskins)
The picks in round 5 through 7 won’t be enough to manuever early.
- Their two 1st rounders would be enough to move up to Pick 5
- Picks 12 and 44 (their 1st and 2nd round picks) could move them up to around Pick 6
- Picks 12 and Pick 76 (their 1st and 3rd) could get them to around Pick 8
- Picks 44 and 76 (2nd and 3rd round) could get them Pick 28 (giving them three 1st rounders)
- Their entire draft class might mathematically be enough to move up to Pick 2, but it’s probably a stretch (and who wants to pull a Ditka when there’s so much talent to be mined in the middle rounds?).
These scenarios may fit the math, but it’s impossible to know if teams would be willing to make these moves based on their needs, their draft boards, and where players fall.
The Packers could also stay put and draft at 12. Last year, the following players were all available at the 12 pick:
- Vita Vea
- Marcus Davenport
- Derwin James
- Jaire Alexander
Those guys had some pretty promising rookie years. Here’s some other guys who appear to have bright futures, who were all available at 12 in the 2017 draft:
- DeShaun Watson
- Jabrill Peppers
- TJ Watt
And just outside of 12, at spots 10 and 11, Patrick Mahomes and Marshon Lattimore were drafted
I know a lot of people thought it would be cool to lose and draft higher, but there’s a lot of talent available at 12 every year.
Last Year’s Move
Last year the Packers moved from 14 to 27 and also picked up what could be the 32nd pick this year. The value of those two picks combined are 1,270 points, while the pick they gave up was valued at 1,100 points. Technically the Packers will come out ahead in value either way, but the real test comes when we see what Jaire Alexander and Marcus Davenport do with their careers, plus what the Packers do with the Saints pick this year.
What Does It All Mean?
Nothing until stuff happens. It’s just fun prognosticating until then, no one – not even the best GMs and talent evaluators in the world – no how the dominoes are going to fall.
Either way, I’ve said all along that it’s not about drafting high as much as it’s about drafting well.
Now, with all the talk about tanking out of the way, the table is set and it’s time to draft well.
* Note: For this analysis, I’m using the draft trade value chart from Walter Football, other sources may have slightly different values. They have an overly obnoxious number of ads, but there don’t still have their data set at 2018 like some of my favorite sites.