Preview and Predictions: at Seahawks – 2018 Week 11

Well we’re riding a one-game win streak after losing two in a row, on the road, to the best teams in the league. Aaand we haven’t won a road game all year, so what’s next?

Right back on the road, cross-country, to the most hostile environment in the league… that has historically been a house of horrors for the Packers… on a short week.

Thanks, NFL Schedulers.

Much like the Packers were last week, the Seahawks are coming off a couple tough losses (theirs were to the Chargers and Rams) and looking to right the ship with a home victory. They’re returning home from LA, which is a much shorter trip than that Packers will be making.

Don’t forget, these are human beings and traveling 1,600 miles on a short week can take a toll on bodies that are beat up in midseason form.

Aaron and Aaron

Aaron Jones has exceeded expectations and pumped new life into the offense… Aaron Rodgers has not. As I wrote earlier in the week, Aaron Jones is being used just fine. He gouges defenses for huge chunks and I think a big pat of his success is that he’s in a multi-threat offense.

His running can open up the passing game and defenses won’t stack the box against him because they have to fear Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers has not been himself. I really want to see him break out of his funk, but I’m not sure the Clink is the place he will do it. No, he’s not facing the Legion of Boom, but he is still going up against a solid defense in a place he hasn’t had much success.

Matching Game

We’ve reached the fun part of the season where there’s enough games to compare head-to-head results.

They both played the Bears:
Packers won 24-23
Seahawks lost 17-24

They both played the Rams
Packers lost 27-29
Seahawks lost 31-33
Seahawks lost 31-36

They both played the Lions
Packers lost 23-31
Seahawks won 28-14

Now, the Packers have the excuse of missing 5 kicks in their loss to the Lions and fumbling away their last chance against the Rams, but I’m sure the Seahawks can point to anomalies in their game results, too. Looking at the whole of these results, it really looks like the teams are pretty evenly matched.

The Other QB

in past meetings, the Packers found success by forgoing the pass rush to keep Wilson in the pocket, forcing him to pass. Wilson never responded well to that.

The Packers don’t have Dom Capers running the show any more, but Mike Pettine should be smart enough to see what they accomplished on old film.

Pettine has generates a lot of pressure on opposing QBs this year, despite not having great edge rushers. He has been generating pressure of the middle using a variety of overloads and odd alignments. That actually plays well into the scheme they used in the past, which featured outside linebackers playing high contain. Nick Perry hurt his knee Sunday, and won’t play tomorrow, which sucks because he could have been a big part of the edge-setting. If Montravius Adams has earned some more snaps, I wouldn’t be surprised if they rolled Dean Lowry out at in an elephant role to help hold the edge. It’s probably more likely that Kyler Sackrell gets the call, though, given his hot play of late and the fact that he leads the team in sacks.

The rush might not even be that big of a factor, though. Russell Wilson hasn’t cracked 300 yards passing all year. Even at home, his high is only 235 yards, with the other two of his three home games netting less than 200 yards passing. He has, however, been efficient in his three home games with 7 TD passes and only 1 interception

This means the defense will have to account for the run game. The Seahawks have rushed for 150 yards or more in 6 consecutive games, including 273 last week against the Rams. Russell Wilson ran 9 times for 91 yards, with a long of only 21. Limiting the run may be the most important factor for success on defense, even though they’re facing a Pro Bowl quarterback.

Question of the Week

The Seahawks have rushed for at least 150 yards in their last 6 games. How many yards will the Packers defense let them run for?

Log your answer on our Twitter post – we’d love it if you retweeted it, but be sure to reply with your answer.

Predictions

Aaron Rodgers finally throws his second interception of the season
Aaron Jones gets a season high 16 carries, maybe more
David Bakhtiari rebounds to have a solid game, allowing little pressure

The Packers D snaps the Seahawks’s  impressive running streak, failing to meet 150 yards rushing (maybe not by much)
The Packers D wont be able to stop Russell Wilson from having a couple of those crazy improvisational plays that get the crowd in a frenzy
Jaire Alexander makes his case for DROY in prime time

Packers 20, Seahawks 23

 

I just have a bad feeling about this. The team hasn’t been clicking – most notably, Rodgers hasn’t been clicking, and that doesn’t bode well. The more I think about it, the more optimistic I get, but it’s usually because I think Pettine can hold the Seahawks offense in check.

At the end of the day, though, this team has not been able to push momentum in a road setting and this is as difficult as a road setting can get… especially on a short week cross-country trip.

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