Draft Day is FINALLY here!
Maximizing your draft capital is done by matching the rankings of your players with your selected draft slot. If you have 5 players ranked basically the same, and someone offers you to move down 4 spots and get an extra pick, you do it. I see a small group worth the top picks in the draft. If that doesn’t happen, you trade down to a place that you are comfortable for your rankings of players for picks this year or next year. This is what they did with Jaire. I’d like to get some extra day 2 picks as there are a lot of good players in rounds 2 and 3 this year.
The value of Pick 30
As the Saints kept on winning in 2018, the Packers had to watch the value of their pick decrease. That being said, it’s not all bad. The Packers can use #12 to get “their guy”, and use #30 for extra day 2 picks. People will be willing to trade for picks at the end of the draft for 2 reasons:
1) A player fell in a way that a team didn’t expect and they don’t want to give others time to trade up at the beginning of day 2. Instead, they want to swoop in during that short time window before other GMs have hours and hours to discuss and work out a trade.
2) The 5th year option. Teams want that leverage for an extra year on the rookie contract.
This makes that pick a little “extra valuable” than just being the 30th player taken.
I don’t think there are any offensive players worth the rare opportunity for the Packers to have a pick as high as #12. Looking back over the last 5 or 6 years, the only non-QB offensive player that I would consider worthy of a pick in the top 12 is Quenton Nelson, and he was special. (I encourage you to go back and look at the offensive players selected in the top 12 over the last few years).
Players I want with the pick:
- Quinnen Williams
- Nick Bosa
- Ed Oliver
- Brian Burns
- Josh Allen
If none of those players are available, I would want to trade down. Badly. There is a clear drop-off once you get past those 5. The strong hope is that 4 of the above players + QBs (3?) + my consolation choices below + other players (Rahshan Gary, Greedy Williams, Devin Bush) fill out the top 11 and one of the above are available.
If trading down wasn’t an option, these are the consolation choices:
- TJ Hockenson
- Montez Sweat
- Jawaan Taylor
- Jonah Williams
- Devin White
As I already indicated, trading this pick might be the best option. If not, taking Jeffery Simmons would be my preferred choice. For anyone unaware, he’s a top defensive lineman that suffered an ACL tear and likely won’t contribute this year at all. It’s like trading a low first round pick this year for a high (very valuable) first round pick next year. The Packers also met with him.
Players I want with the pick:
- Jeffery Simmons
- Christian Wilkins
- Dalton Risner
- Andre Dillard
I used to be interested in Noah Fant at this selection, but I just don’t think that LaFluer wants a receiving tight end. When you are a receiving tight end that has a lot of drops and not a lot of contested catches, I don’t see you as a first rounder.
A great draft
Assuming that trades don’t happen, this would be a best case scenario for the Packers on draft weekend:
- 12) Pass Rush: Ed Oliver / Brian Burns
- 30) Dline: Jeffery Simmons / Christian Wilkins
- 44) Tackle: Dalton Risner / Andre Dillard
- 75) Safety (Gardner-Johnson/Adderly/Thompson/Savage/Thornhill)
- 114) Running back: Miles Sanders / Darrell Henderson
- 118) Tight end (Kahale Warring) or more defense: Blake Cashman or someone that fell (Oruwariye, Mack Wilson, Polite, Wren)
- 150) 2nd Edge (Banagu, Crosby) or receiver that fell (Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin)
- 185) Anyone that fell
- 194) Anyone that fell or special teams (Pollard)
- 226) Developmental guy (Quinton Bell), Injury risk (Tim Harris), or High Floor locker room guy (Anthony Nelson/Mitch Hyatt)
Enjoy the draft!
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