The draft is coming up and there are scenarios abound. Who will the Packers take? Who will be available? What would it take to move up?
We already covered that last one, so let’s look at the opposite scenario: what if all the players I want are gone and I want the Packers to move down – what could they get?
Well I’m glad you asked.
Moving Down From 12
Let’s start with pick 12. There’s not a lot of guys I want at 12 in this draft and, since the middle rounds are bursting with talent, I actually wouldn’t mind trading down.
First there’s the general ranges (again, using DraftTek’s trade value chart as a guide, though most of them are the same):
- Moving down to 13 is worth about a 4th round pick (think Jace Sternberger or Khalen Saunders)
- Moving down between 14 and 17 is worth a 3rd (think Darnell Savage or Bobby Evans)
- Moving down between 18 and 29 is worth a 2nd (think Deebo Samuels or Garrett Bradbury)
So the sweet spot for value would be moving down to 18 (which is Minnesota and an unlikely trade partner as a division opponent) or 19 (which is Tennessee and a more likely trade partner as an AFC team).
Moving down to 19 could be quite a risk as there are certainly a limited number or targets the Packers have their eye on. Maybe moving down to 14 with Atlanta could net a 4th and a 5th. If there’s someone the Falcons want, it might be nice to move if the Packers have a few guys with a similar rating. Likewise, moving down to 20 with Pittsburgh could yield similar value.
There’s a lot of talk that a team like Washington (picking 15) may want to leapfrog Miami (picking 13) to get a QB. In terms of the trade value chart, such a move would only be worth a 3rd, but when Quarterbacks are involved, the price usually goes up. The Packers could probably squeeze a 2nd (maybe tossing in a late Day 3 pick) if there’s a QB the Redskins really want.
One more interesting scenario is the Colts, who happen to have an extra second rounder (#38 overall), pick at #26 overall in the first. Those two picks have a combined value very close to the #12 overall pick…
Moving Down From 30
The values start to get a lot less steep here. The general ranges break out like this:
- Moving down to 31 or 32 is worth about a 5th (think Corey Ballantine or Nate Davis)
- Moving down between 33 and 37 is worth about a 4th (Sternberger, Saunders)
- Moving down between 38 and 52 is worth about a 3rd (Savage, Evans)
- Moving down 53 or later is worth about a 2nd (Deebo, Bradbury)
This is where things get interesting because the talent tier at 30 is a pretty long plateau. I kept getting antsy at this pick in my mock drafts because really, there weren’t a lot of people at 30 that I was positive weren’t going to be around at the Packers next pick at 44.
But trading down to the back of the 2nd puts you in line for value similar to another 2nd. Normally, this isn’t feasible without a collection of Day 2 and 3 picks, but this year is different. This year, the Patriots, Chiefs, and Texans (all AFC teams that would make good favorable partners) each have 2 picks in the last part of the 2nd round (as do the NFC Eagles). If any of those teams are sweet for a guy at the end of the 1st and want that 5th year option, Gutey could reap the rewards.
Actually, I’m all for getting a couple 2’s from any of those teams without even knowing who’ll be on the board.
Putting It All Together
So let’s look at what would happen if the Packers did a double trade down.
Move 12 to 26 with the Colts and pick up the 34 overall pick and trade the 30th overall pick to the Patriots for 56 and 64.
Now, instead of 12, 30, 44, 75, the Packers would have 26, 34, 44, 56, 64, 75.
I don’t know about you, but unless it’s a major player falling to 12, I think I would love that. A draft haul like this could erase the talent deficit we’re still feeling from 2015.
I can’t wait for Thursday!
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