What I Learned After 30 Mock Drafts

We love mock drafts here at PFTW. After running over 100 and fully analyzing 30 (which you can view in our PFTW Mock Draft Archive), a lot of trends have started to emerge.

We took a break after 30 mocks to soak in the Combine and let the dust settle to see what comes next. We’ll be starting the mocks again soon, but for now, let’s look at the points that came up in mocks pre-Combine. 

The Senior Bowl Changed A Lot of Boards And So Will The Combine
After the Senior Bowl, a lot of things changed. It was just that guys like Deebo Samuels jumped up boards based on dominating practices or that guys like Tytus Howard proved that they can handle more competition than Alabama State normally provides, it was bigger than that. Senior Bowl marked the start of formal pre-draft activities and draftniks and prognosticators really started updating their boards. In many cases, this was the first major update to some boards since preseason. As boards matured, we got a better idea of how the real draft may shake out. Now that the Combine is done, we should see boards firm up even more, meaning that the mocks that we do now should be getting closer and closer to the real thing.

Edge Is Top Heavy And Sharply Tiered
In most of the first 30 mocks, it’s becoming a given that Bosa, Allen, and Ferrell will be gone before the Packers pick at 12. It’s also becoming a given that Sweat, Polite, and Burns will be gone before the Packers pick at 30. After that, guys like Jaylon Ferguson and Zach Allen are the clear headliners for the rest of the class that go between 30 and 50.

The Packers Need Help
At pretty much every turn, there’s a lot of guys I want and if I remember how the team looked in November and December, I have to keep in mind that we are not one or two players away. There are a lot of holes and as tempting as it is to trade up, it’s just not worth it on a team with this many holes. I tried moving up in Mock Draft #9 and it really didn’t feel worth it.

This Is A Deep Draft
I keep finding guys I like top to bottom. It’s deep enough to build an entire team in one draft (which I did in Mock Draft #23). This is true to my nature, but I just don’t see a plausible reason to trade up in this draft, especially early.

Offensive Line Is Light On Top But Thick In The Middle
Sure, there’s guys like Cody Ford and Dalton Risner to fill the hole at Guard in the first round, but when you can get guys like Dennis Daley, Tytus Howard, Bobby Evans, and Chuma Edoga in the 4th, why would you? The Packers have a lot of needs that are at positions with less draft depth like Safety where only a handful of guys seem to fit the bill. There are a lot of guys that can run zone blocking that look like they will be available in the middle rounds – read more about it this on Packers, Zone Blocking, and the 2019 NFL Draft

Wide Receivers Are Moving Up
It’s not just that specific guys like Deebo Samuels moved up after the Senior Bowl or prognosticators finally started putting DeMarkus Lodge in a reasonable position, it’s the group as a whole. It’s a very, very deep group, but boards in general seem to be moving receivers up and it’s pushing down talent at a lot of other positions. Even with phenoms like DK Metcalf and K’Neal Harry at the top and middle round guys moving up, I can’t justify a high pick at the position because they’re always easy to find and I’m not sure LaFleur is going to use a lot of 3 wide sets. 

Conclusions
It’s an exciting time for football fans, especially draft fans. There’s a lot of activity going in draft previews and now that the Combine is done, things are really looking to heat up. Buckle up, watch our mocks, and get ready for one of the most exciting Packers drafts in quite some time!

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Check out our PFTW 2019 Mock Draft Archive to see how other scenarios played out!

Check out Packers Draft Central for all our 2019 NFL Draft coverage!

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