There’s a big rumor circulating on Twitter right now that the Packers are entertaining a trade offer involving Jordan Love.
This sheet makes note to a possible trade with the Patriots involving 2020 rookie QB Jordan Love (rumored to be from a GB office)
The details are the Patriots trading down from pick 15 to acquire Love, the 29th pick and a 4th round pick (142nd) pic.twitter.com/Pb4453cbG2
— GilletteNation (@gillettenation) April 19, 2021
In this scenario, the Packers would package up Love with their 1st round pick (#29 overall) and a 4th round pick to the Patriots to move up to #15.
There’s a number of reasons to not overreact.
Let’s start with the fact that we have no idea where this picture came from.
If it is actually Brian Gutekunst’s desk, and it is an actual trade offer, it would probably be an offer the Patriots floated out as a conversation starter because the value is hopelessly in New England’s favor.
From Drafttek’s Trade Value Chart, the 29th pick has a value of 640 points and the 15th pick has a value of 1050 points, for a difference of 410 points. Last year, Jordan Love was selected at the 26th pick ,which has a value of 700 points, giving New England a 1050 to 1340 advantage before including the 4th rounder.
Not only that, but quarterbacks – particularly young prospects – have a higher value than any other position, making the equation even more in favor of New England.
Why would New England do this?
Last year, they could have taken Love at #23 overall, but instead opted to trade down to #37 (picking up a 3rd round pick in the process).
Were they thinking that Love was going to fall to #37?
They might have been, but when a team has their eye on a young quarterback prospect, and that prospect falls to them, they usually don’t trade down (well, maybe the Lions would, but the Patriots are too smart for that).
But let’s say the Patriots made a big blunder and now want to make up for it by getting Jordan Love a year later… after not seeing him play at all in the preseason or regular season.
Why would the Packers take this deal?
Last year, they traded a 1st and a 4th for Love. Now they’re looking at packing him up with another 1st and 4th to get up to the 15 spot?
Two 1st rounders and two 4th rounders for the 15th overall pick?
That seems silly, especially when the Packers are looking for a cornerback, an offensive tackle, and multiple wide receivers in a year where there are deep crops of cornerbacks, offensive tackles, and wide receivers that should be available into the 4th round.
Even if you think the Packers didn’t think Aaron Rodgers had another MVP in him and realize Jordan Love was a bad move, this wouldn’t be the move they made.
If they thought they were close to winning it all, it would be smarter to trade Love straight up for draft capital and players, not package him with two picks just to move up to the middle of the 1st round.
The Packers didn’t extend Rodgers, which makes it seem like they view Love as the heir. If they did, they wouldn’t trade him away.
But maybe they didn’t extend Rodgers because they wanted future cap flexibility or better negotiating leverage or are just keeping their options open. Maybe they don’t view Love as the future and want to unload him.
If that’s the case, this trade still doesn’t make sense from a value perspective.
If this picture actually is a legitimate trade offer, it is most likely New England’s opening offer to being negotiations.
The Packers may tell them to get bent or they may come back with a counter offer, but it seems very unlikely that they’d package him with a 4th round pick just to move up in the 1st.
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