The Packers are picking back down in the 30’s after a couple years of uncharted territory in the top half of the draft.
Even in a position like that, there are opportunities to move down (which I am almost always a fan of in the 1st round).
What kind of opportunities?
Well I’m glad you asked!
The Packers pick at #30 overall in the 1st round. According to DraftTek.com’s NFL Trade Value Chart (which I use for most of my exercises) is worth 620 points.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Packers to move down in the 1st round given how low they’re picking, so we’ll have to look at the 2nd round. Our focus here will be on the five teams that each have two 2nd round picks.
Let’s see what the trade values are for those teams and their 2nd and 3rd round picks before diving into the possibilities:
Colts: Pick 34 (560 points) and Pick 44 (460 points)
3rd round: Pick 75 (215 points)
Bears: Pick 43 (470 points) and Pick 50 (400 points)
3rd round: No pick (just like the 1st round!)
Falcons: Pick 47 (430 points) and Pick 55 (350 points)
3rd round: Pick 78 (200 points)
Dolphins: Pick 39 (510 points) and Pick 56 (340 points)
3rd round: Pick 70 (240 points)
Seahawks: Pick 59 (310 points) and Pick 64 (270 points)
3rd round: Pick 100 (100 points)
Let’s start by ruling out the Bears. Not only are trades by division rivals rare, the Bears draft capital just doesn’t line up to work out anything reasonable with the Packers.
The Seahawks seem like the most intriguing team. They could potentially deal both of their 2nd round picks to the Packers and come out ahead. They have two 4th round picks and either one has the value to make the trade values match within a few points. It’d be interesting to see what the Packers would do with with three picks in a six pick span at the end of the 2nd round (59, 62, and 64) while picking up another 4th rounder.
The 2nd round historically shows good value at the wide receiver position (especially for the Packers) and this year is a very deep class, making this a potential goldmine for restocking the depleted corp (to learn more about how this scenario could unfold, check out Packers 2020 Mock 2 – Maximum Receiver Value).
The Dolphins aren’t that far off from the Seahawks. Their second pick in the 2nd round (56) is just three spots ahead of Seattle’s and their 3rd round pick (70) is only six slots after the Seahawks second 2nd rounder. Much like the Seahawks swap, a 4th round pick (142 for Miami) could even up the value. A move like that would give the Packers picks 56, 62, and 70, while picking up another 4th rounder.
The Falcons also could be likely partners from a math perspective. If they packaged the earlier of their two 2nd round picks (47) with their 3rd rounder (78), it would be basically a wash and give the Packers two 2nds at 47 and 62 plus two 3rds at 78 and 94, giving them a lot of flexibility and a position to come away with four top-100 players capable of starting over the next couple of years.
The Colts have a more challenging position to deal with the Packer simply based on where they are slotted. Their second 2nd round pick (44) and their 3rd round pick (75) would combine to be worth far more than the Packers first round pick (while their 2nd and 4th round picks combined are not nearly enough to afford the Packers 1st rounder. If they packaged their 2nd round (44) and 3rd round (75) picks, the Packers would need to add their 4th rounder (133) and their earlier 6th rounder (192, which they got from the Raiders in exchange for Trevor Davis) to their 1st round pick to make the values even out. Such a move would decrease the overall number of picks for Green Bay, which may not be in Gutey’s plans.
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